Teach you how to distinguish between the flu and the new crown is not panic

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"We can't go back to the way we were in the past." It is sad that this sentence appeared in a romance novel, but it is far less shocking than it appeared in reality and appeared in the mouth of the Director-General of the World Health Organization. . Just a few days ago, the major British media put the same news in a prominent position: "The new crown virus will always coexist with us, forever."

The epidemic is not shifted by human will, and we may have three endings. The first outcome is "complete victory", that is, within 2-3 months, all patients have received good treatment and the national epidemic is under control. The second outcome is "long-term anxiety", that is, all the epidemics are under control and the number of cases has increased moderately, but they are under control. The whole process is very long, dragging on to half a year or even a year, just like SARS in those days. The third outcome is "complete failure." In 2009, the Mexican swine flu spread to the world and millions of people in the United States were infected. If the new pathogen is not controlled, it will be so.

Looking back at the anti-epidemic in January now, it looks like a world away. At that time, even the top professional doctors never thought that this virus would enter the fourth ending... The entire world was completely torn apart because of this epidemic. China has basically succeeded in fighting the epidemic. The cases were firmly suppressed within three months. Even if one or two cases occur occasionally, they will be immediately detected, dealt with, and controlled within a short period of time.

The European anti-epidemic has entered a long-term anxiety, and the epidemic is still spreading, but the government has controlled the number of cases to a moderate increase that hospitals can cope with, without affecting people's normal work and life. And the United States... We originally thought that the country with the most developed medical resources was "completely failed." Millions of people were infected, pushing the virus to new heights.

For humans all over the world, there is no doubt that our fight against the epidemic has failed. We are not surprised, because all mankind has watched it develop little by little in the past six months, watched it change from ten thousand, to one hundred thousand, to million, to ten million, towards this result. But when the World Health Organization and many scientists recognize this fact together, we still feel some unspeakable sadness.

Masks will become a good friend of mankind and a must-have item in public. We will always measure body temperature, record travel data, and keep an eye on possible epidemic cases. Separated sitting in cinemas and theaters will continue, and large-scale events such as sports games and concerts will also be much less. Closed management in colleges and universities may continue, appointments for canteens and bathhouses, and even online classes will continue. Telecommuting will become more popular, there will be less contact between people, and social distance will continue. Such days will gradually get better, but they will continue for a long, long time...

What we have been looking forward to before is that when the vaccine is developed, we no longer need to be cautious. But yesterday the World Health Organization said: "Vaccines will be an important tool for the global fight against the new crown epidemic, but it cannot end the new crown pandemic by itself, nor can it guarantee that scientists will find a vaccine." "Vaccines are not necessarily good, and no vaccines are absolutely impossible. "Even though human medical technology is now highly developed, there is still no guarantee that scientists will be able to find an effective vaccine in the short term. And even if vaccines appear, the world cannot end the new crown pandemic immediately.

If you want the vaccine to achieve all-round protection, 95% of people in a region need to be vaccinated. But you have to know that this may be possible in China or in Northern Europe, but what about other regions? The measles vaccine was popularized in 1963, but until April last year, there was still a large outbreak of measles virus in the United States because there were too many anti-vaccination people and insufficient vaccination rates. On the other hand, even if there are no anti-vaccine people, some areas will not be able to cover all people due to insufficient conditions. In poverty-stricken areas where food and drinking water cannot be guaranteed, in war-torn areas where even hospitals have been blown up by war, the new crown vaccine will be immediately vaccinated around the world as soon as the new crown vaccine is launched. The possibility of realization will be a miracle tomorrow morning. Almost disappeared.

In addition, even if a vaccine is really launched, because of the special nature of the new crown, it may not be able to completely prevent and control it. Humans have indeed had a case of victory-smallpox, we firmly suppressed smallpox and made it history. However, COVID-19 is different from smallpox. Smallpox is a very stable double-stranded DNA virus that is almost impossible to mutate. The new crown is an RNA virus, and its mutation is as normal as breathing. The new crown virus may be more like the flu, and new types of flu have been emerging for so many years. Influenza occurs every winter and spring, mutates every year, and spreads every year, affecting human life. In other words, influenza is a failed war against the virus. We coexist with the flu and will continue to coexist...just like we will coexist with the new crown in the future.